Selection of Candidates for General Elections

Selection of Candidates for General Elections

Generally, election notification by the Election Commission of India generates a wave of excitement among the parties, the social activists as well as general public to identify the right and most suitable candidates for each constituency as early as possible. Each party follows their own methodology, formula and logic to process the selection of candidates for the elections.

In general, parties conduct many surveys and collect feedback from each constituency regarding the local party members/candidates. The interested candidates are interviewed by the party poll panel, after which the senior party leaders take a call on the candidates to be nominated. As each political party wants to win the maximum seats, parties identify candidates – consider their image/status in that area and their potential as winnable candidates..............

Exhibit

Exhibit I: Details of Candidates

Selection of Candidates for General Elections

Prerequisite Conceptual Understanding

Prerequisite Conceptual Understanding (PCU) material is the background material that would aid immensely in mapping the decision areas of this caselet and bring a synthesis amongst the relevant concepts. The participants/students should be encouraged to read this material to benefit from the broader perspectives outlined in the caselet.

• • Richard I. Levin and David S. Rubin, “Chapter 4 – Probability I: Introductory Ideas”, Statistics for Management, 7^th Edition, Pearson Education, 2008

Synopsis

This caselet enables an understanding of the application of basics of probability and laws of probability. This caselet can also be used for teaching the concepts of conditional probability and Bayes’ theorem. The caselet provides a brief about the selection of candidates by the political parties in India for the upcoming general elections. The caselet uses a fictional situation to enable a discussion and understanding of the concepts of probability.

The caselet focuses on the use of Bayes’ theorem in estimating the chances probability of selection of candidate being a female and age less than 45 years. The caselet presents the dilemma of the Secretary of the political party to access the likelihood of selecting a candidate in random with possible combinations.

Pedagogical Objectives

• • To understand the basics of probability and laws of probability
• • To study the application of conditional probability
• • To have an in-depth understanding of Bayes’ theorem and its application

Assignment Question

I. Predict the likelihood of selection of candidates at random with possible combinations of gender, age, education and criminal charges against them.

Teaching Plan

The Teaching Note follows a defined Teaching Plan [Annexure (TN)-I], which guides in conducting the classroom discussion on the caselet...........

Exhibit

Exhibit (TN)-I: Coding the Data

Exhibit (TN)-II: Joint Probability Table